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Our study examines Hungary’s macroeconomic performance and balance indicators in an international comparison for the period between 2020 and 2023, while also assessing how recent developments compare to trends observed in the 2010s. Identifying the distinctive features of the past few years is complicated by the fact that the 2020s have been characterized by an unusual degree of macroeconomic instability, exacerbated by excessive government overspending, frequent miscalculations in budgetary planning, and overall fiscal unpredictability.

Each year within the period had its own defining economic challenges: 2020 was marked by the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 saw a sharp economic rebound, 2022 experienced a severe external balance deterioration and soaring inflation due to pre-election overspending, while 2023 was dominated by a drastic decline in domestic consumption, leading to an economic downturn and an unprecedented correction in external imbalances. The instability of the Hungarian economy manifested in several negative European records, including the highest inflation rate, the largest relative government interest expenditure, and the sharpest decline in domestic demand in 2023. As a consequence, the anticipated economic recovery in 2024 failed to materialize.

International capital flows form the main lifeblood of the global economy. They are of critical importance to both sending and receiving countries, being closely tied to their economic and social development, risk assessments, and productivity potential. Despite the fact that capital transfers (which include portfolio investments, foreign direct investment (FDI), and banking transfers) primarily occur between developed countries, they hold particular significance from the perspective of emerging economies. In these countries, the economy is highly vulnerable to the volatility or limited availability of foreign capital transfers, as the country's ability to finance its budget partly depends on its attractiveness to capital.

The motivations behind capital flows must be evaluated from both the "pull" (receiving) and "push" (sending) factor perspectives (Fernandez-Arias 1996). According to this, push factors are more clearly identifiable in the case of portfolio investments (such as the search for higher returns, risk management, etc.), whereas pull factors tend to be more pronounced in the case of foreign direct investment (FDI). This distinction is not accidental, as FDI investments involve capital owners considering strategic ("soft") factors when making decisions, factors that portfolio investors typically pay less attention to. Therefore, the focus in FDI decisions is not primarily on local conditions, but rather on the investor's global, long-term strategy (Albuquerque et al. 2005).

As a result, the structural changes that have occurred over the past few decades in FDI transfers cannot solely be assessed from the perspective of receiving countries; it is also necessary to take into account the strategies of companies in the sending countries.

The issue of labor shortages has increasingly surfaced in Hungary, with concerns that reserves have been depleted and that labor scarcity now acts as a constraint on production. Public discourse largely attributes this situation to emigration, while the government seeks to expand available resources. But what does labor shortage truly mean? This question was examined in detail during the period of its intensification in the chapter Close-up of the Labor Market Review 2016 (edited by Köllő, 2017). Köllő and his co-authors (2017) emphasize that labor shortages can only be understood in relation to prevailing wage levels, a clarification that renders the concept relative. They highlight that references to labor shortages are often driven by vested interests and may be more accurately interpreted as complaints.

It may be the case that demand exceeds supply at existing wage levels, while price adjustments and/or labor mobility are hindered by various constraints. Alternatively, the supply of available workers may be increasing at a slower pace than the demand for labor at recent wage levels, or policymakers may deem the supply of a particular type of labor insufficient for achieving important societal objectives. Naturally, different forms of labor shortages can be categorized based on the criteria outlined above and tied to specific periods. However, in every instance, the situation must be assessed within the framework of prevailing wages.

Emigration, too, can be interpreted within this context. In a previous study published in the Social Report 2016, Hárs (2016) pointed out that despite a tightening labor market, increasing emigration had no discernible effect on wage dynamics in Hungary. A comparative study based on the database of the Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (WIIW) (Astrov et al., 2021) examines labor market shortages across the Central and Eastern European region. While notable similarities exist, the study also highlights significant divergences in Hungarian labor market trends and perceptions of labor shortages.

Since the mid-2010s, labor shortages in Hungary have appeared substantial and persistent across multiple indicators. A company may perceive its operations as constrained by the absence of just one or a handful of workers—relative to prevailing wages. Corporate survey-based indicators measuring labor shortages in Hungary were already exceptionally high in 2014, surpassing the EU27 average and those of other countries in the region.

The disruptive economic and social impacts of the Fourth Industrial Revolution require rapid responsiveness and adaptability. It is not an exaggeration to state that effective economic performance depends on a forward-looking perspective—more precisely, the ability to forecast and plan for the future. The digital age is characterized by the integration of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, generative AI, quantum computing, blockchain, 3D printing, the Internet of Things (IoT), and autonomous vehicles. The digital transformation presents both opportunities and challenges for every worker, business, and organization. The European Union views the digital transition as a key driver of growth, expecting it to improve the Union's globally vulnerable position (European Commission (Draghi) 2024a, 2024b; Marcus–Rossi 2024). Consequently, the EU supports initiatives to promote an innovative and sustainable economy, such as the Digital Europe Programme and Europe’s Digital Decade.

The need for the digitalization of the European economy goes beyond the mere expansion of internet access; it strives for an integration that spans all areas of society, impacting education, employment, public services (Małkowska et al. 2021), and the bridging of digital divides. Monitoring digital transformation primarily relies on quantitative tools, such as the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), which provides a comprehensive picture of the dynamics of digital processes, including the digitalization of workplaces. The digitalization of workplaces is measured by the proportion of businesses using digital tools and practices, such as ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) software, social media, Big Data, cloud-based services, AI technologies, or electronic invoicing (Appendix F1).

In our research, we examined the level of workplace digitalization, as well as the general digital situation in Hungarian society, based on indicators such as internet usage, digital skill levels, teleworking frequency, and the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in workplace communication, in the context of occupational groups and regional differences across Europe. In our analysis, we utilized one of the most important data infrastructures for studying European societies, the 10th wave of the European Social Survey (ESS ERIC 2023), as the primary data source for comparing the digitalization processes in European countries.

The results indicate that while northern and western European countries have an intensive use of digital tools in the workplace, central and southern European regions, including Hungary, exhibit lower levels of adoption, particularly among lower-skilled workers. These disparities fundamentally affect work efficiency and the opportunities for workers to participate in the digitalizing sectors of the economy, which increases the risk of automation for these workers—the likelihood that automation processes will lead to job losses in these occupations. This study provides insights into the labor market impacts of digitalization and emphasizes the significance of regional and occupational inequalities.

Hungary is the only country among the Visegrád Group where the population has been consistently decreasing year after year over the past decades. As a result, between 1990 and 2020, the country's population decreased from 10.4 million to 9.8 million (a 5.8% decline). During this period, the population in Poland remained virtually unchanged (a decrease of only 0.2%), with the population of 38 million, while in the Czech Republic, the population increased from 10.4 million to 10.7 million, and in Slovakia, it grew from 5.3 million to 5.5 million (both increases of 3.2%) according to official data. Changes in population size significantly influence many aspects of societal life (Mason–Lee 2022). Among other challenges, it affects systems based on redistribution between different age groups (e.g., pension systems, health insurance), impacts the utilization of capacities related to state and market services, affects the rate of natural resource use, and contributes to the pace of climate change. Accordingly, demographic trends are a frequent topic in scientific research and are increasingly coming to the forefront of public discourse both domestically and internationally. In public debates, much attention is given to the number of births and international migration and its effects. Additionally, partly in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, there is an increasing focus on life expectancy at birth and the social-economic challenges that arise as a society’s average age increases.

The patterns of family structure and their changes throughout an individual’s life course are closely linked to various characteristics of social status, indicating that social status plays a crucial role in shaping forms of cohabitation. In other words, different dimensions of social status (e.g., educational attainment, labor market position) act as selection factors in various aspects of demographic behavior and characteristics, which in turn influence cohabitation patterns. At the same time, cohabitation forms themselves can generate social inequalities, such as disparities in wealth, income, and health. In the case of families with children, they may also contribute to inequalities in different outcome dimensions for children.

The role of family structure and its transformations in the reproduction of social inequality and poverty has been a subject of research for several decades (see, e.g., Bernardi & Boertien, 2017; Cherlin, 2014; Esping-Andersen, 2007; McLanahan & Percheski, 2008; Wax, 2007). The relevance of this research topic has grown in recent years due to the increasing diversification of family life courses, which may amplify the impact of family structures within the broader system of social inequality reproduction.

In our study, we focus on one dimension of family structure: the different forms of parenthood. Our analysis extends beyond cohabiting families, as we also examine parents who live separately from their children. Additionally, we include the concept of stepparenting, expanding the scope of traditional family structure research, which has already demonstrated the connection between social status and family types among families with children (Harcsa & Monostori, 2018, 2020).

The current forms of parenthood reflect the demographic events that have shaped an individual’s relationship and parental trajectory. Divorce, parental separation, widowhood, remarriage, entering a new partnership, and the birth of children from different relationships are key events that determine the specific forms of parenthood.

The analysis of factors that facilitate or hinder the formation of ethnically mixed marriages can provide valuable input for education, labor market, and healthcare policies. Both national and local policymakers should be aware that the increasing number and geographical distribution of Roma-Hungarian mixed partnerships may influence the spatial patterns of population growth, affect the well-being of children born into these unions—who may have different needs compared to children from ethnically homogeneous marriages—and, in the absence of adequate institutional support, potentially disrupt the balance of ethnic and cultural socialization.

We hypothesize that the more rigid a society’s stratification and the more segmented its economic and social environment, the less likely it is that individuals from ethnically polarized groups will form mixed partnerships. Using the full-scale, individual-level census data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) for the years 2011 and 2022, we examine the statistical relationship between the structural characteristics observed in major Hungarian cities in 2011 and the prevalence of Roma-Hungarian mixed partnerships in the same cities in 2022.

The expected pace of economic development and growth is now unimaginable without the active participation of women. As societal expectations towards women evolve, research aimed at mapping gender inequalities is gaining increasing prominence. Among these studies, analyses focusing on entrepreneurial willingness, business formation, and company performance are receiving growing attention.

The Gender Gap Index, measured by the World Bank since 2006, and the European Institute for Gender Equality (EIGE 2024) are among the key sources of information assessing disparities in societal roles, activities, and performances between men and women. These indices enable the monitoring of regional and temporal changes in gender inequalities. The Agenda 2030, adopted by the UN General Assembly to promote sustainable development, along with the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), explicitly includes the objective of "achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls" (UN 2015). This has provided further momentum for exploring gender disparities in greater depth and implementing concrete actions to promote equality.

Supporting women's entrepreneurial activity is one possible approach to addressing this issue—an initiative also highlighted in the OECD’s publication, Closing the Gender Gap – Act Now (OECD 2012). In Hungary, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) publishes gender-disaggregated data derived from various sectoral statistics, including the report Women and Men in Hungary (KSH 2019). Beyond systematic data collection, research centers and individual scholars also contribute significantly to keeping this issue on the agenda.

Between 1997 and 2011, the TÁRKI Institute regularly published the study series Changing Roles, which examined the socio-economic status of men and women. Similarly, Gregor and Kováts (2018) provided a comprehensive and insightful analysis of the situation of Hungarian women in their publication Women’s Issues 2018, based on focus group discussions and large-scale survey research. One of the key messages of their work is that most factors negatively affecting women's life opportunities revolve around the tension between work and caregiving responsibilities.

The refugee crisis triggered by the Russian–Ukrainian war aligns with a globally increasing migration trend. Following the record-high influx of six million new immigrants in 2022, the number of newly arrived permanent immigrants to OECD countries reached an all-time high of 6.5 million in 2023. In addition, 4.7 million Ukrainian refugees also sought asylum or settled in OECD states. The number of newly arriving refugees and asylum seekers has reached unprecedented levels worldwide, with the Ukrainian refugee crisis being only one of its many sources (OECD 2024).

Since the outbreak of the war in early 2022, a record number of refugees have arrived in Hungary as well. By October 2023, when the study’s data collection took place, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated that approximately three million people had crossed the Ukrainian–Hungarian border, including those who arrived indirectly via Romania. The majority of these individuals stayed only briefly before continuing their journey toward Western Europe or even more distant continents. In October 2023, at the time of data collection, there were 35,000 Ukrainian refugees in Hungary holding temporary protection status, in addition to those with dual Ukrainian–Hungarian citizenship, who, due to their Hungarian nationality, are not eligible for refugee status (UNHCR 2023). There is no publicly available or regularly updated official data estimating the number of this latter group.

From a legal perspective, the Ukrainian refugee population in Hungary is sharply divided. Ukrainian citizens eligible for temporary protection—available throughout Europe—and dual citizens of Ukraine and Hungary, who are primarily ethnic Hungarians from Transcarpathia, may share many similarities in their circumstances but live under different legal frameworks in Hungary. Those with temporary protection status are entitled to financial and in-kind benefits, including access to housing under specific but varying conditions, three daily meals, free rail travel, healthcare and social services, education, and employment opportunities. The unique situation of Ukrainian refugees who also hold Hungarian citizenship stems from the clear advantages of their nationality, language skills, and social connections in Hungary. However, despite their theoretically equal rights and entitlements to the same benefits as those with temporary protection status, their higher legal status as Hungarian citizens has led to unexpected disadvantages.

A grade or test score alone has little informational value unless appropriate reference points are available. Without these, it is impossible to determine what specific tasks a student is capable of performing, whether they belong to the group of high or low achievers, or how their performance has evolved over time. Additionally, the resources available to the student during their preparation may also be a crucial factor. Such information is indispensable for effectively supporting a student’s development. When assessing the performance of educational systems and identifying intervention points for improvement, these aspects are also of central importance.

A key question, therefore, is what level of knowledge a country’s school system can impart to its citizens, how these achievements compare internationally, in what direction performance trends are moving, and to what extent student outcomes depend on family background and available resources. This study examines these issues with a focus on Hungarian public education from the turn of the millennium onwards, particularly emphasizing the period since Hungary’s accession to the European Union.

Hungary has participated in major international student knowledge assessments since the 1970s, providing regular insights into student competencies and the overall performance of the education system across various fields and levels. This study summarizes the results of the past two decades of key international assessments, including the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS), which evaluates reading comprehension skills among fourth-grade students; the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), which assesses mathematical and scientific knowledge among fourth- and eighth-grade students; and the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which measures the reading, mathematical, and scientific literacy of 15-year-old students.

In addition to these findings, the study also reviews trends in certain key indicators that hold particular significance in the context of the European Union’s educational policy priorities.