Changes in the educational attainment of young people in Hungary and the European Union

The stock of human capital in a country, including the education level and skills of its population, is one of the key drivers of economic growth and productivity. A vast body of literature examines this issue (see, e.g., Hanushek & Woessmann, 2023). It is now widely accepted that improving the quality of human capital is among the most crucial policies for middle-income countries seeking to escape the middle-income trap. Moreover, not only higher education but also the diversification of skills and competencies plays a decisive role (Agénor & Canuto, 2015; Agénor, 2017).

The skills and competencies acquired through upper secondary education (ISCED 3)—which corresponds to secondary education in Hungarian terminology—are increasingly considered the minimum requirement for successful labor market entry. This level of qualification is essential for further studies and enables individuals to participate in vocational training or adult education later in life, equipping them to adapt to evolving labor market demands (Brunello & Rocco, 2017).

Moreover, high-quality higher education is regarded as vital for economies aiming to move beyond basic production processes and low-value-added products and establish more complex value chains. The growing demand for higher education graduates has also been driven by the rise of digitalization, robotics, and automation (Albinowski & Lewandowski, 2024).