The 2024 European Parliament elections in Hungary

Since 1979, the European Union (formerly the European Economic Community) has held direct elections to its 720-member representative body every five years. In addition to its role in EU-level lawmaking, the European Parliament (EP) also has some authority and political influence in the election, accountability, and approval of the European Commission, the executive body of the EU (Hix et al. 2007; Hix–Høyland 2022). Compared to the centuries-old powers of the national parliaments of member states, the European Parliament’s jurisdiction is modest but expanding rapidly. This growth is not necessarily due to formal reforms but rather because the public—especially in Western European member states—expects a more prominent role from the body. In response, the European political groups have increasingly adopted more ambitious goals and a clearer sense of their representative roles (Hix et al. 2007).

The rules adopted by the European Parliament take precedence and define a significant portion of the national laws of the 27 member states. This highlights the importance of European elections, as the EU represents about 6% of the global population and roughly one-sixth of the world’s GDP. In this sense, a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) holds greater political power than a representative in their own national parliament. However, despite this, the elections for the former generally attract less attention. This is because while the issues addressed by EU legislation are often significant, they are less politicized, as citizens primarily identify and engage with national political contexts. Additionally, the results of European elections are not greatly influenced by the voting outcomes of any individual member state. Consequently, the final outcome of the European elections—i.e., which transnational party group secures how many seats—is generally predictable with a high degree of accuracy. Even if unexpected events occur in a member state’s EP election, their impact is often diluted by opposing developments in other states.

In 2024, it was no secret that the representation of center-left and liberal parties would decrease, while EU-skeptical and far-right parties would increase their representation in Parliament. However, it also seemed clear that this would not lead to a change in the composition of the European Commission, as the shift would not be significant enough to prompt a radically different party arrangement. Instead, the maneuvering space for the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) would increase, as it could form a numerical majority with the party groups to its right in the 2024-2029 European Parliament cycle.