Interactions between the social and employment objectives of the European Union
letöltésTóth István György; Gábos András; Cantillon, Bea; Nolan, Brian
Interactions between the social and employment objectives of the European Union
Performance vis-à-vis the employment and social targets of the European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR) Action Plan represent a central test for the success of the EPSR. The Belgian Presidency has the aim of strengthening the social agenda for the 2024-2029 period via a stronger integration of the EPSR in the European economic governance framework. Performance to date regarding the social target (AROPE) at EU level has not matched up to the success in increasing employment rates; a central challenge is to understand why and tease out the implications. This paper presents analysis and empirical evidence to contribute towards improved understanding of the relationship between the EU’s employment and social target (at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate, AROPE) indicators, including the implications of the way these are framed. We analyse past trends of the employment rate and both the 2020 and 2030 AROPE rates and their components and examine their relationships at the EU and at Member States’ level. Links between these indicators and some key demographic, economic and social policy measures are also explored. Our analysis is mainly built on quantitative data collected by Eurostat (mostly based on EU-LFS and EUSILC), but other data sources are also used. The developments of the employment and of the AROPE indicators over time in Europe show that the period prior to and after the Great Recession was marked by a strong overall increase in employment rates, reaching high levels just before the crisis and a peak in 2020 before the outbreak of the COVID19 pandemic. The increase in employment was followed by improvements in AROPE during both preand post-crisis years. Still, there is a dissatisfaction with the achievements in the social field, as they could not (in general, at EU level) fully match up to those in employment, and because the EU 2020 social target (AROPE) was not achieved (although the employment target was not reached either, at EU level and in several Member States). The findings of this paper shed some lights on the extent to which one should interpret this as a failure and the extent to which these developments should be attributed to policies and to measurement (in terms of indicators and levels of analysis). The paper also contributes to the understanding of background mechanisms that channel employment growth into income poverty changes.