Social convergence between Central and Eastern European countries and their reference countries

Tóth, István György; Csathó, Ábel

Social convergence between Central and Eastern European countries and their reference countries

From its inception, the European Union has pursued the fundamental goal of strengthening economic and social integration among its member states. This objective became even more pronounced with the accession of the less developed Central and Eastern European countries from the post-Soviet sphere. During both the political transitions and the EU’s eastern enlargement, the elites and electorates of these newly admitted countries were primarily driven by aspirations to economically and socially converge with Western Europe.

But has there been social convergence between Central and Eastern European countries and some of the older EU member states since the dissolution of the post-Yalta order and their accession to the EU? And if so, to what extent? This chapter seeks to answer that question by analyzing the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), the four Visegrád countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia), as well as Croatia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria (hereinafter: EU11 countries), with particular emphasis on Hungary.

Most convergence analyses focus on economic indicators, examining trends such as the reduction of heterogeneity within larger country groups (e.g., EU15, EU27, or the Eurozone) through sigma-convergence, the degree of catch-up by poorer countries through beta-convergence, or the narrowing of differences within the entire observed population through so-called “club convergence.” In contrast, we argue that it is more meaningful to assess the development of the EU11 subregions by comparing them with the subregions most relevant to their respective contexts—Baltic states with Scandinavia, Central and Eastern Europe with Western-Central Europe, and Romania and Bulgaria with Italy and Spain.

Our analysis, covering the period from the early 1990s to the most recent available data, also diverges from most existing studies in this field by focusing primarily on social convergence rather than economic and institutional development.